Real Estate

Reality check on housing prices, please.

According to this article in the New York Times, housing prices take up less of a families income, percentage-wise, than in previous generations. I guess they haven’t seen the Denver market where housing prices are up 350% since the mid nineties while incomes are up only around 40%. One of these days something is going to have to give, and I think it is the housing market. Get out while you can!

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Read more from this blogger: Housing Is More Affordable Than In Previous Generations. Huh?

If the housing market didn't go up in Texas as the rest of the U.S., it seems like it won't go down as much, either.

The Fed also offered an upbeat look at the state’s housing market. At present they see absolutely no evidence of a housing bubble or pending deflation in the housing market. While housing prices soared nationally by 12% in the third quarter of 2005 versus 2004, the Texas market only moved up 5.3%

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Read more from this blogger: THE FED AGAIN: IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY HAPPY 2006

LOL.

So, this seems a good built-in mechanism for keeping the population, and thus housing prices, low in the area. But some rich hippies don’t like it:

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Read more from this blogger: Here’s how we bring down housing prices

Brokeback Mountain inspires ... a look at gay neighborhoods and housing prices.

Still, this peaked my curiosity and I headed over to epodunk.com for some same-sex household statistics. It turns out Laguna Niguel gets a 142 (42% more same-sex households than the US average) and Aliso Viejo (next city over, where the movie was also showing) gets 180 (80% more same-sex households than average). Still, my parents’ city (San Clemente) gets a measly 83 (20% less than average), so it’s not universal for the area. Laguna Beach is a whopping 478 (nearly 5 times the national average), which is actually about the same as San Francisco (479). These are still the suburbs and settled down people though, so it says little about the number of single gay men (for example) that inhabit these places. If I had to guess, I think the high numbers in Aliso Viejo and Laguna Niguel maybe reflect spill over from neighboring Laguna Beach where housing prices are even more astronomical. Get partnered, buy a house in the cheaper burbs over the hills, etc. For my North Carolina readers here are the names and scores of various Triangle cities: Durham (152), Raleigh (106), Chapel Hill (97), Carrboro (117). Seattle garners a respectable 341. I’m a bit surprised that there are so many same sex households in this area. It makes me wonder if this place is a hot bed for Log Cabin Republicans (a gay Republican group for those not in the know). I’ve done searches on dating sites before too and there are WAY more available gay men here than in the Triangle, which I admit still surprises me somewhat. I mean when I was in high school, there was nobody who was out (at least that I knew of) and people were socially quite conservative.

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Read more from this blogger: Back Home and ‘Brokeback’

Musings on the direction of mortgage rates and new home sales after a disappointing November report on new home sales.

While the Fed has recently hinted that it may soon change its stance regarding interest rates to a more neutral posture, there appears to be at least a quarter to half percentage point upward adjustment left. Expect new homes sales to continue to soften in 2006; the $64,000 question is by how much?

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Read more from this blogger: U.S. New Homes Sales Fall 11.3% In November

More commentary on November's decline in new home sales.

The number to look for here isn't necessarily the number of new homes sold last month. The number that is the interesting one is the number of unsold houses on the market. And that number is a disturbing one.

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Read more from this blogger: The soft hissing sound gets louder

Click through for the cartoon!

The editorial cartoon shown above, drawn by Ventura County Star's Steve Greenberg represents accurately how many communities are being squeezed by the rising housing prices to the extent that middle-class professionals cannot live in the towns where they work.

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Read more from this blogger: Housing Affordability Plummets in US

I'm seeing more bloggers trying to decide whether to take their money off the table, as it were.

I am now trying to decide if I want to sell the house this spring, as housing prices are very high. I do not want to sell too early and rent for a long time before I move, but I also do not want to sell in a declining market. Choices…..

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Read more from this blogger: Solstice

It's hard to believe the Fed is targeting only mortgage rates and the housing market.

This morning, the better-than-expected housing starts and building permits numbers caused the currency markets to start viewing the dollar favorably again. Big selloffs in euros and gold happened, as the Federal Reserve hiking cycle is extrapolated into the future. Since the Fed has openly targeted housing, the idea is that if it's not slowing down due to low mortgage rates, they'll keep hiking the fed funds rate into oblivion. I don't know about that, but the short-term currency players think so.

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Read more from this blogger: Smart Money Moves?

Some musings on property tax and politics in Pennsylvania.

Note, too, that the biggest screams of relief are coming from Allegheny County residents. Outlying areas are not so concerned, although older residents their are also feeling the pinch of inflating housing prices (thank you The Fed, low rates, and flooding the money supply) in the midst of flat income. Elderly: Thank your hero, FDR and mostly democrat Congresses for 50 years in Washington D.C. for creating and then bankrupting what was already a Ponzi scheme from the start. Social Security can’t cover the property tax bill.

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Read more from this blogger: The Tax Suffel: You bought it. You broke it. You pay for it.

High housing prices can stifle business growth.

Barry Broome, president of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council (GPEC) said he’s starting to see the effect of higher housing prices in the questions and concerns of companies that GPEC is working with on moving to or expanding in the Valley. “It’s affecting what has historically been an advantage in Arizona,” he said. “To have them (housing prices) go up 50 to 80 percent is starting to show up in the analyses companies do on where to locate.”

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Read more from this blogger: Are home costs scaring firms off?

Falling housing prices may catch many consumers by surprise.

I watched George Will pathetically spin on This Weak how great this economy is, because housing prices have skyrocketed. But what does he carefully avoid mentioning? That a huge chunk of that appreciation is going directly into consumer debt. So we have a country of homeowners literally betting the farm that they can win the race between bills coming due and the housing market falling.

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Read more from this blogger: Eh, Expectations

Some analysis of housing prices and the impact of a lower prices and higher interest rates.

Most people have been talking about the housing bubble and the impact on house prices. My thoughts on the matter now, is that prices will fall a bit in some areas but I do not foresee a major rollback in prices. If people can not get the price they want for the house and if they can afford to make the house mortgage payments, then they will stay put in the house for now until sales improve.

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Read more from this blogger: First signs of housing trouble?

This is a good post on valuation and mortgages.

Beginning the loan application process without any idea of the actual value range of a property is something similar to launching a space exploration without knowing where you are going. Throughout the last twenty plus years, I have been asked continually to support the same kind of idiotic practice, by loan officers, mortgage brokers and borrowers alike. It is a practice that I candidly term as “Value Roulette.”

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Read more from this blogger: Value Roulette and the Appraisal Process

You can work with your neighbors and local police to reduce your home insurance rates.

Just for the record, a few years ago two moms tried to get together a Neighborhood Association for the purpose of getting neighbors to know each other and share interests, resources, and community awareness. I think their main goal was sharing babysitting and play groups for their young children but they really did put forth quite a bit of effort into coordinating block captains, bimonthly meetings, a neighborhood garage sale, a regular newsletter, a website, and a few other party/events. I recall the second or third publicized meeting Hubby and I went to had about 7 people total out of the neighborhood attending (including the coordinators). A representative from the College Station Police Department came to talk about home safety, home insurance discounts (theft deterrents, etc), neighborhood awareness, possibilities for neighborhood watch type associations, etc. It was a really nice presentation she did, I felt bad there were so few people attending.

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Read more from this blogger: Neighborhood Update

Is it the sound of bubbles bursting or lead balloons hitting the ground?

I’ve been a member of a local business networking group for a couple months now. One of the things I remember recently hearing from the real estate guy was that housing prices in the area are dropping like lead balloons.

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Read more from this blogger: Housing Prices: What Are You Seeing?

A rant about tax incentives to attract new business operations to Montana.

I'm sorry, why should the taxpayers pay this kind of money to lure a buisness in? Especially in an area of low unemployment, around 3%. These jobs are going to lure people into an all ready crowded area, driving housing prices further up than they all ready are putting strains on Missoula's transportation situation and adding to the pollution problem that this area experiences every year. The taxpayers pay $20,000 per job for all these benifits.

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Read more from this blogger: Incentives

Thoughts on California's Proposition 13 and housing prices.

As far as the conomy goes, Will Franklin reports that state tax rates turn out to be highly corelated with the economy and migration in and out. California, to my surprise is not among the top ten tax collectors. I suspect from the comments that we can thank Prop 13 for keeping property taxes under control. Housing prices probably more than compensate in impact on households but that is speculation on my part.

Actually, Proposition 13 has given government an incentive to reduce residential zoning because it gets more tax revenue from commercial property. That, in turn, has artifically increase housing prices. The effect is similar to rent control laws. Home owners are incented to buy a house early and never sell which, in turn, pushes housing prices higher still. As a result, current home buyers are paying disproportionately high property taxes.

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Read more from this blogger: More Info for Future Expatriots

The condo market generally has higher volatility than the single-family home market.

To understand housing bubbles, it really helps to have lived in Florida where they are continuous. It has been very, very rare to see absolute declines in the value of detached, single family housing. Condos, however, are another story. Condo prices can really crater, as they did in the mid-1970’s and the late 1980’s. The reason why is simple.

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Read more from this blogger: more on housing bubble